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May 10, 2022Liked by Stacey Eskelin

One of the problems right now is that, unlike 2004 -- 2007, we are NOT in a housing bubble. Unlike stock bubbles which can be tricky to identify, housing bubbles are relatively tame beasts, easily identifiable by the disconnect between mortgage and rental prices. No such disconnect exists right now, which makes it unclear how the market could undergo anything like a "natural" "correction." (Those words deserved to be individually scare-quoted.)

Much as a despise where I am living, I'd be hard pressed to do better given my finances. Johnston City is the place where dreams go to die, which is why is so affordable. I suppose I can still brag about location for the 2024 eclipse.

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I am convinced at this point that NOT getting in over your head, rent-wise, is the most peace-inducing thing you can do.

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A few months before Erin and I got married in 2015, we bought a home in north Portland for $442,000. Yeah, it was a bit above our budget, but it's a great house, we love it, and we're planning on being here for awhile. We weren't thinking of it as an investment, but rather as a home. It's literally our dream home.

Well, fast forward seven-plus years, and our home's value is now estimated at about $740,000. Within 18-24 months, it may well be worth double what we paid for it. It's not as if we've done anything crazy to it, either. We just happened to be fortunate enough to buy at the right time, though that absolutely wasn't part of our thought process.

Our situation is the product of some great good fortune, but what if we were just getting out of college and looking to buy our first home together? There's no way we'd be able to afford to live in Portland. Our good fortune is the flip side of someone else's financial dilemma, and it's hard not to feel a bit guilty sometimes.

Capitalism sucks, except when it doesn't. The problem is that it's always creating winners and losers. We would've been happy with a reasonable ROI. Double in 9-10 years is crazy in any market. What is this going to mean for people in their 20s and 30s? I hate to think of where that generation will be when they're our age.

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HOLY SHIT. Well, there's my quod erat demonstrandum for ya, right there. On the one hand, I'm stoked about your house appreciating. You deserve good things. On the other hand, like you, I quake in fear of what my kids are going to do in this world.

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