Whether or not we care to admit it to ourselves, we're already involved in World War III. We may balk at referring to it as such, but we delayed becoming involved militarily in World Wars I & II, and this looks distressingly similar. No rational person should believe that Putin will stop at NATO's borders- particularly when it comes to Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. At some point, his tanks will roll over those borders.
The question is when and how we become involved- and how many innocent Ukrainian civilians must die before we wake up and smell the decomposing bodies. The Russian military has shown itself to be something of a paper tiger- poorly disciplined, poorly provisioned, and insufficiently trained for the task of invasion and occupation. If the American military becomes involved, there will be casualties, but the Russians will learn what it means to face a modern, well-trained, and well-equipped fighting force. We can only pray that Vladimir Putin won't use the opportunity to go nuclear.
I'm not advocating for war; it's the last thing I want to see, but the alternative is standing idly by while Ukraine is slaughtered by an enemy who shows no respect for the laws of war. Though the Ukrainian army is acquitting itself admirably, it needs help- and a lot of it. At some point that help will have to be in the form of American boots on the ground and jets in the air.
I hope I'm wrong, but I've studied enough military history and spent enough time in Eastern Europe to convince myself that I'm not. We're already involved in World War III; the only question is the degree to which we want to wade in.
You stated that perfectly, and I’m in thunderous agreement. Not looking for war, but well aware of the fact that we don’t have the luxury of sitting this one out.
Jack Cluth; I find your analysis both incisive and chilling. I agree with your perspective and can find no convincing retort to what you've written. Yes, WWIII is already in progress, we need to acknowledge this, and our actions need to follow from this discomforting truth.
Poland is a NATO country, and no gleam in Putin's eye (or any other orifice) will change the fact that such a move would trigger an automatic and direct military confrontation with the west, one he cannot possibly hope to win. The Russian military has conclusively demonstrated that a juggernaut it is not. A 40 mile long convoy stuck in the mud and out of gas? Overwhelming numbers of aircraft, yet unable to establish even air superiority (never mind supremacy) in Ukraine? As a fascist leader with dreams of Empire, Putin is proving to be more akin to Mussolini than to Hitler.
I still expect the Russians to "win" in Ukraine -- the race is not always to the swift, nor victory to the strong, but that's how the smart money bets. But the cost to the Russian military machine will be so extreme that it will take 20 years *AFTER* they've re-integrated into the global economy to rebuild it.
It has been over 30 years since the Russians orchestrated a major military operation against significant opposition (no such opposition was present in the Crimea), and that was the withdrawal from Afghanistan. (Chechnya presented major opposition, but only involved a small portion of the Russian military, and never involved substantive logistical issues.)
Ugly as it is to say, but the American war machine has had far more practice fighting at great distance from it's base of supply and operation. The Russian generals know this. Were Putin to attempt something so catastrophically reckless as to order his people in the direction of such a direct confrontation, his own military would be as likely to stage a coup as to comply.
This essay is as fine a summation of the financial straitjacket that The UK, and to a slightly lesser extent The US, has greedily wrapped themselves with, that I've seen. This is the inevitable result of decades of Neo-liberal policies coming to rotten fruition. I marvel at how you can so succinctly distill years of history and international policy down to their essence and leave the reader the richer for it. Your posts are essential reading for this and any topic you make the focus of your writing.
Whether or not we care to admit it to ourselves, we're already involved in World War III. We may balk at referring to it as such, but we delayed becoming involved militarily in World Wars I & II, and this looks distressingly similar. No rational person should believe that Putin will stop at NATO's borders- particularly when it comes to Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia. At some point, his tanks will roll over those borders.
The question is when and how we become involved- and how many innocent Ukrainian civilians must die before we wake up and smell the decomposing bodies. The Russian military has shown itself to be something of a paper tiger- poorly disciplined, poorly provisioned, and insufficiently trained for the task of invasion and occupation. If the American military becomes involved, there will be casualties, but the Russians will learn what it means to face a modern, well-trained, and well-equipped fighting force. We can only pray that Vladimir Putin won't use the opportunity to go nuclear.
I'm not advocating for war; it's the last thing I want to see, but the alternative is standing idly by while Ukraine is slaughtered by an enemy who shows no respect for the laws of war. Though the Ukrainian army is acquitting itself admirably, it needs help- and a lot of it. At some point that help will have to be in the form of American boots on the ground and jets in the air.
I hope I'm wrong, but I've studied enough military history and spent enough time in Eastern Europe to convince myself that I'm not. We're already involved in World War III; the only question is the degree to which we want to wade in.
You stated that perfectly, and I’m in thunderous agreement. Not looking for war, but well aware of the fact that we don’t have the luxury of sitting this one out.
Jack Cluth; I find your analysis both incisive and chilling. I agree with your perspective and can find no convincing retort to what you've written. Yes, WWIII is already in progress, we need to acknowledge this, and our actions need to follow from this discomforting truth.
Amen. And that truth is truly--your word--“discomfiting.”
Per your concerns about Putin's Imperial dreams:
Poland is a NATO country, and no gleam in Putin's eye (or any other orifice) will change the fact that such a move would trigger an automatic and direct military confrontation with the west, one he cannot possibly hope to win. The Russian military has conclusively demonstrated that a juggernaut it is not. A 40 mile long convoy stuck in the mud and out of gas? Overwhelming numbers of aircraft, yet unable to establish even air superiority (never mind supremacy) in Ukraine? As a fascist leader with dreams of Empire, Putin is proving to be more akin to Mussolini than to Hitler.
I still expect the Russians to "win" in Ukraine -- the race is not always to the swift, nor victory to the strong, but that's how the smart money bets. But the cost to the Russian military machine will be so extreme that it will take 20 years *AFTER* they've re-integrated into the global economy to rebuild it.
It has been over 30 years since the Russians orchestrated a major military operation against significant opposition (no such opposition was present in the Crimea), and that was the withdrawal from Afghanistan. (Chechnya presented major opposition, but only involved a small portion of the Russian military, and never involved substantive logistical issues.)
Ugly as it is to say, but the American war machine has had far more practice fighting at great distance from it's base of supply and operation. The Russian generals know this. Were Putin to attempt something so catastrophically reckless as to order his people in the direction of such a direct confrontation, his own military would be as likely to stage a coup as to comply.
Look, I hope you’re right. I tend to believe Poland when they say Putin is coming for them.
This essay is as fine a summation of the financial straitjacket that The UK, and to a slightly lesser extent The US, has greedily wrapped themselves with, that I've seen. This is the inevitable result of decades of Neo-liberal policies coming to rotten fruition. I marvel at how you can so succinctly distill years of history and international policy down to their essence and leave the reader the richer for it. Your posts are essential reading for this and any topic you make the focus of your writing.
You have a true gift for making me feel as though I’m not crying in the wind.